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Nuklearer Winter

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Nuklearer Winter bezeichnet die Verdunkelung und Abkühlung der Erdatmosphäre als Folge einer großen Anzahl von Kernwaffenexplosionen. Nuklearer Winter: Welche Folgen hätte ein regionaler Atomkrieg für die Welternährung? Ein Krieg mit Nuklearwaffen hätte katastrophale. Der Terminus „nuklearer Winter“ wurde durch eine mit agitatorischem Geschick veröffentliche Studie von Carl Sagan und seinen. Nuklearer Winter: Dieser Krieg kühlt. Nukleare Waffengänge würden auch das Erdklima verändern, prophezeit Alan Robock. Die Asche in der. Neue amerikanische Studien über die Klimakatastrophe nach einem Atomkrieg: Nuklearer Winter: Leise rieselt der Schnee. Seite 4/8. Inhalt. Auf einer Seite lesen​.

Nuklearer Winter

Die Erosion der Rüstungskontrolle und das Comeback der Atomkriegsgefahr; von Peter Wahl Als die globalisierungskritische Bewegung Ende. Monatelang gäbe es eine “nukleare Dämmerung”. Auf der ganzen Welt würde es nicht mehr hell werden. So würde auch ein “nuklearer Winter”. Nuklearer Winter: Dieser Krieg kühlt. Nukleare Waffengänge würden auch das Erdklima verändern, prophezeit Alan Robock. Die Asche in der.

Further, solar radiation records reveal that none of the nuclear explosions to date has resulted in any detectable change in the direct sunlight recorded on the ground.

Batten, while primarily analysing potential dust effects from surface bursts, [71] it notes that "in addition to the effects of the debris, extensive fires ignited by nuclear detonations might change the surface characteristics of the area and modify local weather patterns In the United States National Research Council NRC book Long-Term Worldwide Effects of Multiple Nuclear-Weapons Detonations published in , it states that a nuclear war involving 4, Mt from present arsenals would probably deposit much less dust in the stratosphere than the Krakatoa eruption, judging that the effect of dust and oxides of nitrogen would probably be slight climatic cooling which "would probably lie within normal global climatic variability, but the possibility of climatic changes of a more dramatic nature cannot be ruled out".

In the report The Effects on the Atmosphere of a Major Nuclear Exchange , the Committee on the Atmospheric Effects of Nuclear Explosions argues that a "plausible" estimate on the amount of stratospheric dust injected following a surface burst of 1 Mt is 0.

Following studies on the potential effects of NOx generated by engine heat in stratosphere flying Supersonic Transport SST airplanes in the s, in , John Hampson suggested in the journal Nature that due to the creation of atmospheric NOx by nuclear fireballs , a full-scale nuclear exchange could result in depletion of the ozone shield, possibly subjecting the earth to ultraviolet radiation for a year or more.

In the section of this NRC book pertaining to the issue of fireball generated NOx and ozone layer loss therefrom, the NRC present model calculations from the early-to-mid s on the effects of a nuclear war with the use of large numbers of multi-megaton yield detonations, which returned conclusions that this could reduce ozone levels by 50 percent or more in the northern hemisphere.

However independent of the computer models presented in the NRC works, a paper in in the journal Nature depicts the stratospheric ozone levels worldwide overlaid upon the number of nuclear detonations during the era of atmospheric testing.

The authors conclude that neither the data nor their models show any correlation between the approximate Mt in historical atmospheric testing and an increase or decrease of ozone concentration.

In total, about Mt were atmospherically detonated between and , [83] peaking in —62, when Mt were detonated in the atmosphere by the United States and Soviet Union.

In journalist Jonathan Schell in his popular and influential book The Fate of the Earth , introduced the public to the belief that fireball generated NOx would destroy the ozone layer to such an extent that crops would fail from solar UV radiation and then similarly painted the fate of the Earth, as plant and aquatic life going extinct.

In the same year, , Australian physicist Brian Martin , who frequently corresponded with John Hampson who had been greatly responsible for much of the examination of NOx generation, [10] penned a short historical synopsis on the history of interest in the effects of the direct NOx generated by nuclear fireballs, and in doing so, also outlined Hampson's other non-mainstream viewpoints, particularly those relating to greater ozone destruction from upper-atmospheric detonations as a result of any widely used anti-ballistic missile ABM-1 Galosh system.

Martin describes views about potential ozone loss and therefore increases in ultraviolet light leading to the widespread destruction of crops, as advocated by Jonathan Schell in The Fate of the Earth , as highly unlikely.

More recent accounts on the specific ozone layer destruction potential of NOx species are much less than earlier assumed from simplistic calculations, as "about 1.

Parson in the s. The first published suggestion that a cooling of climate could be an effect of a nuclear war, appears to have been originally put forth by Poul Anderson and F.

Waldrop in their post-war story "Tomorrow's Children", in the March issue of the Astounding Science Fiction magazine.

The story, primarily about a team of scientists hunting down mutants , [88] warns of a " Fimbulwinter " caused by dust that blocked sunlight after a recent nuclear war and speculated that it may even trigger a new Ice Age.

Parsons that the story "Torch" by C. In the story a nuclear warhead ignites an oil field, and the soot produced "screens out part of the sun's radiation", resulting in Arctic temperatures for much of the population of North America and the Soviet Union.

The Air Force Geophysics Laboratory publication, An assessment of global atmospheric effects of a major nuclear war by H.

Muench, et al. In general these reports arrive at similar conclusions as they are based on "the same assumptions, the same basic data", with only minor model-code differences.

They skip the modeling steps of assessing the possibility of fire and the initial fire plumes and instead start the modeling process with a "spatially uniform soot cloud" which has found its way into the atmosphere.

Although never openly acknowledged by the multi-disciplinary team who authored the most popular s TTAPS model, in the American Institute of Physics states that the TTAPS team named for its participants, who had all previously worked on the phenomenon of dust storms on Mars, or in the area of asteroid impact events : Richard P.

Turco , Owen Toon , Thomas P. Ackerman, James B. Pollack and Carl Sagan announcement of their results in "was with the explicit aim of promoting international arms control".

In , William J. Crutzen and John Birks began preparing for the publication of a calculation on the effects of nuclear war on stratospheric ozone, using the latest models of the time.

It was after being confronted with these results that they "chanced" upon the notion, as "an afterthought" [9] of nuclear detonations igniting massive fires everywhere and, crucially, the smoke from these conventional fires then going on to absorb sunlight, causing surface temperatures to plummet.

Crutzen and Birks' calculations suggested that smoke particulates injected into the atmosphere by fires in cities, forests and petroleum reserves could prevent up to 99 percent of sunlight from reaching the Earth's surface.

This darkness, they said, could exist "for as long as the fires burned", which was assumed to be many weeks, with effects such as: "The normal dynamic and temperature structure of the atmosphere would After reading a paper by N.

Bochkov and E. Chazov , [94] published in the same edition of Ambio that carried Crutzen and Birks's paper "Twilight at Noon", Soviet atmospheric scientist Georgy Golitsyn applied his research on Mars dust storms to soot in the Earth's atmosphere.

The use of these influential Martian dust storm models in nuclear winter research began in , [95] when the Soviet spacecraft Mars 2 arrived at the red planet and observed a global dust cloud.

The orbiting instruments together with the Mars 3 lander determined that temperatures on the surface of the red-planet were considerably colder than temperatures at the top of the dust cloud.

Following these observations, Golitsyn received two telegrams from astronomer Carl Sagan , in which Sagan asked Golitsyn to "explore the understanding and assessment of this phenomenon.

In the same year Alexander Ginzburg, [96] an employee in Golitsyn's institute, developed a model of dust storms to describe the cooling phenomenon on Mars.

Golitsyn felt that his model would be applicable to soot after he read a Swedish magazine dedicated to the effects of a hypothetical nuclear war between the USSR and the US.

Golitsyn presented his intent to publish this Martian derived Earth-analog model to the Andropov instigated Committee of Soviet Scientists in Defence of Peace Against the Nuclear Threat in May , an organization that Golitsyn would later be appointed a position of vice-chairman of.

Both Golitsyn [] and Sagan [] had been interested in the cooling on the dust storms on the planet Mars in the years preceding their focus on "nuclear winter".

Sagan had also worked on Project A in the s—s, in which he attempted to model the movement and longevity of a plume of lunar soil.

Interest in the environmental effects of nuclear war, however, had continued in the Soviet Union after Golitsyn's September paper, with Vladimir Alexandrov and G.

Stenchikov also publishing a paper in December on the climatic consequences, although in contrast to the contemporary TTAPS paper, this paper was based on simulations with a three-dimensional global circulation model.

Richard Turco and Starley L. Thompson were both critical of the Soviet research. Turco called it "primitive" and Thompson said it used obsolete US computer models.

Phillips to review the state of the science. The smoke resulting would be largely opaque to solar radiation but transparent to infrared, thus cooling the Earth by blocking sunlight, but not creating warming by enhancing the greenhouse effect.

The optical depth of the smoke can be much greater than unity. Forest fires resulting from non-urban targets could increase aerosol production further.

Dust from near-surface explosions against hardened targets also contributes; each megaton-equivalent explosion could release up to five million tons of dust, but most would quickly fall out; high altitude dust is estimated at 0.

Burning of crude oil could also contribute substantially. The 1-D radiative-convective models used in these [ which? All [ which?

In a paper entitled "Climate and Smoke: An Appraisal of Nuclear Winter", TTAPS gave a more detailed description of the short- and long-term atmospheric effects of a nuclear war using a three-dimensional model: [12].

One of the major results of TTAPS' paper was the re-iteration of the team's model that oil refinery fires would be sufficient to bring about a small scale, but still globally deleterious nuclear winter.

Following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and Iraqi threats of igniting the country's approximately oil wells, speculation on the cumulative climatic effect of this, presented at the World Climate Conference in Geneva that November in , ranged from a nuclear winter type scenario, to heavy acid rain and even short term immediate global warming.

In articles printed in the Wilmington Morning Star and the Baltimore Sun newspapers in January , prominent authors of nuclear winter papers — Richard P.

Turco, John W. Birks, Carl Sagan, Alan Robock and Paul Crutzen — collectively stated that they expected catastrophic nuclear winter like effects with continental-sized effects of sub-freezing temperatures as a result of the Iraqis going through with their threats of igniting to pressurized oil wells that could subsequently burn for several months.

As threatened, the wells were set on fire by the retreating Iraqis in March , and the or so burning oil wells were not fully extinguished until November 6, , eight months after the end of the war, [] and they consumed an estimated six million barrels of oil per day at their peak intensity.

When Operation Desert Storm began in January , coinciding with the first few oil fires being lit, Dr.

He also argued that he believed the net effects would be very similar to the explosion of the Indonesian volcano Tambora in , which resulted in the year being known as the " Year Without a Summer ".

Sagan listed modeling outcomes that forecast effects extending to South Asia , and perhaps to the Northern Hemisphere as well.

Sagan stressed this outcome was so likely that "It should affect the war plans. The atmospheric scientist tasked with studying the atmospheric effect of the Kuwaiti fires by the National Science Foundation , Peter Hobbs , stated that the fires' modest impact suggested that "some numbers [used to support the Nuclear Winter hypothesis] The idea of oil well and oil reserve smoke pluming into the stratosphere serving as a main contributor to the soot of a nuclear winter was a central idea of the early climatology papers on the hypothesis; they were considered more of a possible contributor than smoke from cities, as the smoke from oil has a higher ratio of black soot, thus absorbing more sunlight.

In , a nuclear winter study, noted that modern computer models have been applied to the Kuwait oil fires, finding that individual smoke plumes are not able to loft smoke into the stratosphere, but that smoke from fires covering a large area [ quantify ] like some forest fires can lift smoke [ quantify ] into the stratosphere, and recent evidence suggests that this occurs far more often than previously thought.

Stenchikov et al. However, much larger plumes, such as would be generated by city fires, produce large, undiluted mass motion that results in smoke lofting.

New large eddy simulation model results at much higher resolution also give similar lofting to our results, and no small scale response that would inhibit the lofting [Jensen, ].

However the above simulation notably contained the assumption that no dry or wet deposition would occur. Between and , commentators noted that no peer-reviewed papers on "nuclear winter" were published.

Based on new work published in and by some of the authors of the original studies, several new hypotheses have been put forth, primarily the assessment that as few as firestorms would result in a nuclear winter.

Compared to climate change for the past millennium, even the smallest exchange modeled would plunge the planet into temperatures colder than the Little Ice Age the period of history between approximately and AD.

This would take effect instantly, and agriculture would be severely threatened. Larger amounts of smoke would produce larger climate changes, making agriculture impossible for years.

In both cases, new climate model simulations show that the effects would last for more than a decade.

A study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research in July , [] titled "Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences", [] used current climate models to look at the consequences of a global nuclear war involving most or all of the world's current nuclear arsenals which the authors judged to be one similar to the size of the world's arsenals twenty years earlier.

The authors used a global circulation model, ModelE from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies , which they noted "has been tested extensively in global warming experiments and to examine the effects of volcanic eruptions on climate.

In the Tg case they found that:. As for the 50 Tg case involving one third of current nuclear arsenals, they said that the simulation "produced climate responses very similar to those for the Tg case, but with about half the amplitude," but that "the time scale of response is about the same.

In , Michael J. The model had outputs, due to the interaction of the soot cloud:. Killing frosts would reduce growing seasons by 10—40 days per year for 5 years.

Surface temperatures would be reduced for more than 25 years, due to thermal inertia and albedo effects in the ocean and expanded sea ice.

The combined cooling and enhanced UV would put significant pressures on global food supplies and could trigger a global nuclear famine.

Research published in the peer-reviewed journal Safety suggested that no nation should possess more than nuclear warheads because of the blowback effect on the aggressor nation's own population because of "nuclear autumn".

The four major, largely independent underpinnings that the nuclear winter concept has and continues to receive criticism over, are regarded as: [] firstly, would cities readily firestorm , and if so how much soot would be generated?

Secondly, atmospheric longevity: would the quantities of soot assumed in the models remain in the atmosphere for as long as projected or would far more soot precipitate as black rain much sooner?

Third, timing of events: how reasonable is it for the modeling of firestorms or war to commence in late spring or summer; this is done in almost all US-Soviet nuclear winter papers, thereby giving rise to the largest possible degree of modeled cooling?

Lastly, the issue of darkness or opacity : how much light-blocking effect the assumed quality of the soot reaching the atmosphere would have.

While the highly popularized initial TTAPS 1-dimensional model forecasts were widely reported and criticized in the media, in part because every later model predicts far less of its "apocalyptic" level of cooling, [] most models continue to suggest that some deleterious global cooling would still result, under the assumption that a large number of fires occurred in the spring or summer.

Thompson's less primitive mids 3-Dimensional model, which notably contained the very same general assumptions, led him to coin the term "nuclear autumn" to more accurately describe the climate results of the soot in this model, in an on camera interview in which he dismisses the earlier "apocalyptic" models.

Kearny cited a Soviet study that modern cities would not burn as firestorms, as most flammable city items would be buried under non-combustible rubble and that the TTAPS study included a massive overestimate on the size and extent of non-urban wildfires that would result from a nuclear war.

Richard D. Small, director of thermal sciences at the Pacific-Sierra Research Corporation similarly disagreed strongly with the model assumptions, in particular the update by TTAPS that argues that some 5, Tg of material would burn in a total US-Soviet nuclear war, as analysis by Small of blueprints and real buildings returned a maximum of 1, Tg of material that could be burned, "assuming that all the available combustible material was actually ignited".

Although Kearny was of the opinion that future more accurate models would "indicate there will be even smaller reductions in temperature", including future potential models that did not so readily accept that firestorms would occur as dependably as nuclear winter modellers assume, in NWSS Kearny did summarize the comparatively moderate cooling estimate of no more than a few days, [] from the Nuclear Winter Reappraised model [] [] by Starley Thompson and Stephen Schneider.

This was done in an effort to convey to his readers that contrary to the popular opinion at the time, in the conclusion of these two climate scientists, "on scientific grounds the global apocalyptic conclusions of the initial nuclear winter hypothesis can now be relegated to a vanishing low level of probability.

However while a article by Brian Martin in Science and Public Policy [] states that although Nuclear Winter Reappraised concluded the US-Soviet "nuclear winter" would be much less severe than originally thought, with the authors describing the effects more as a "nuclear autumn", other statements by Thompson and Schneider [] [] show that they "resisted the interpretation that this means a rejection of the basic points made about nuclear winter".

In the Alan Robock et al. Therefore, a much more limited war [there] could have a much larger effect, because you are putting the smoke in the worst possible place", and "anything that you can do to discourage people from thinking that there is any way to win anything with a nuclear exchange is a good idea.

The contribution of smoke from the ignition of live non-desert vegetation, living forests, grasses and so on, nearby to many missile silos is a source of smoke originally assumed to be very large in the initial "Twilight at Noon" paper, and also found in the popular TTAPS publication.

However, this assumption was examined by Bush and Small in and they found that the burning of live vegetation could only conceivably contribute very slightly to the estimated total "nonurban smoke production".

A paper by the United States Department of Homeland Security , finalized in , states that after a nuclear detonation targeting a city "If fires are able to grow and coalesce, a firestorm could develop that would be beyond the abilities of firefighters to control.

However experts suggest in the nature of modern US city design and construction may make a raging firestorm unlikely". Russell Seitz, Associate of the Harvard University Center for International Affairs, argues that the winter models' assumptions give results which the researchers want to achieve and is a case of "worst-case analysis run amok".

The fire ultimately devastated the region burning the world's largest boreal forest , the size of Germany. Yet it was represented as a "sophisticated one-dimensional model" — a usage that is oxymoronic, unless applied to [the British model Lesley Lawson] Twiggy.

Seitz cited Carl Sagan, adding an emphasis: " In almost any realistic case involving nuclear exchanges between the superpowers, global environmental changes sufficient to cause an extinction event equal to or more severe than that of the close of the Cretaceous when the dinosaurs and many other species died out are likely.

This [is] astronomical mega-hype As the science progressed and more authentic sophistication was achieved in newer and more elegant models, the postulated effects headed downhill.

By , these worst-case effects had melted down from a year of arctic darkness to warmer temperatures than the cool months in Palm Beach!

A new paradigm of broken clouds and cool spots had emerged. The once global hard frost had retreated back to the northern tundra. Seitz's opposition caused the proponents of nuclear winter to issue responses in the media.

The proponents believed it was simply necessary to show only the possibility of climatic catastrophe, often a worst-case scenario, while opponents insisted that to be taken seriously, nuclear winter should be shown as likely under "reasonable" scenarios.

Anspaugh, is upon the question of which season should be used as the backdrop for the US-USSR war models, as most models choose the summer in the Northern Hemisphere as the start point to produce the maximum soot lofting and therefore eventual winter effect, whereas it has been pointed out that if the firestorms occurred in the autumn or winter months, when there is much less intense sunlight to loft soot into a stable region of the stratosphere, the magnitude of the cooling effect from the same number of firestorms as ignited in the summer models, would be negligible according to a January model run by Covey et al.

Anspaugh also expressed frustration that although a managed forest fire in Canada on 3 August is said to have been lit by proponents of nuclear winter, with the fire potentially serving as an opportunity to do some basic measurements of the optical properties of the smoke and smoke-to-fuel ratio, which would have helped refine the estimates of these critical model inputs, the proponents did not indicate that any such measurements were made.

Hobbs , who would later successfully attain funding to fly into and sample the smoke clouds from the Kuwait oil fires in , also expressed frustration that he was denied funding to sample the Canadian, and other forest fires in this way.

In , atmospheric scientist Joyce Penner from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory published an article in Nature in which she focused on the specific variables of the smoke's optical properties and the quantity of smoke remaining airborne after the city fires and found that the published estimates of these variables varied so widely that depending on which estimates were chosen the climate effect could be negligible, minor or massive.

John Maddox , editor of the journal Nature , issued a series of skeptical comments about nuclear winter studies during his tenure.

Fred Singer was a long term vocal critic of the hypothesis in the journal and in televised debates with Carl Sagan.

In a response to the more modern papers on the hypothesis, Russell Seitz published a comment in Nature challenging Alan Robock's claim that there has been no real scientific debate about the 'nuclear winter' concept.

Strangeloves ", physicist Freeman Dyson of Princeton for example stated "It's an absolutely atrocious piece of science, but I quite despair of setting the public record straight.

William R. In the s Castro was pressuring the Kremlin to adopt a harder line against the US under President Ronald Reagan , even arguing for the potential use of nuclear weapons.

As a direct result of this a Soviet official was dispatched to Cuba in with an entourage of "experts", who detailed the ecological effect on Cuba in the event of nuclear strikes on the United States.

Soon after, the Soviet official recounts, Castro lost his prior "nuclear fever". Robock's 90 minute lecture was later aired on the nationwide state-controlled television station in the country.

However, according to Robock, insofar as getting US government attention and affecting nuclear policy, he has failed.

In , together with Owen Toon , he gave a talk to the United States Congress but nothing transpired from it and the then presidential science adviser, John Holdren , did not respond to their requests in or at the time of writing in In a "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists" feature, Robock and Toon, who had routinely mixed their disarmament advocacy into the conclusions of their "nuclear winter" papers, [18] argue in the political realm that the hypothetical effects of nuclear winter necessitates that the doctrine they assume is active in Russia and US, " mutually assured destruction " MAD should instead be replaced with their own "self-assured destruction" SAD concept, [] because, regardless of whose cities burned, the effects of the resultant nuclear winter that they advocate, would be, in their view, catastrophic.

In a similar vein, in Carl Sagan and Richard Turco wrote a policy implications paper that appeared in AMBIO that suggested that as nuclear winter is a "well-established prospect", both superpowers should jointly reduce their nuclear arsenals to " Canonical Deterrent Force " levels of — individual warheads each, such that in "the event of nuclear war [this] would minimize the likelihood of [extreme] nuclear winter.

An originally classified US interagency intelligence assessment states that in both the preceding s and 80s, the Soviet and US military were already following the " existing trends " in warhead miniaturization , of higher accuracy and lower yield nuclear warheads, [] this is seen when assessing the most numerous physics packages in the US arsenal, which in the s were the B28 and W31 , however both quickly became less prominent with the s mass production runs of the 50 Kt W68 , the Kt W76 and in the s, with the B Alongside the desire to still destroy hardened targets but while reducing the severity of fallout collateral damage depositing on neighboring, and potentially friendly, countries.

As it relates to the likelihood of nuclear winter, the range of potential thermal radiation ignited fires was already reduced with miniaturization.

For example, the most popular nuclear winter paper, the TTAPS paper, had described a Mt counterforce attack on ICBM sites with each individual warhead having approximately one Mt of energy; however not long after publication, Michael Altfeld of Michigan State University and political scientist Stephen Cimbala of Pennsylvania State University argued that the then already developed and deployed smaller, more accurate warheads e.

W76 , together with lower detonation heights , could produce the same counterforce strike with a total of only 3 Mt of energy being expended.

They continue that, if the nuclear winter models prove to be representative of reality, then far less climatic-cooling would occur, even if firestorm prone areas existed in the target list , as lower fusing heights such as surface bursts, would also limit the range of the burning thermal rays due to terrain masking and shadows cast by buildings, [] while also temporarily lofting far more localized fallout when compared to airburst fuzing — the standard mode of employment against un-hardened targets.

This logic is similarly reflected in the originally classified Interagency Intelligence assessment , which suggests that targeting planners would simply have to consider target combustibility along with yield, height of burst, timing and other factors to reduce the amount of smoke to safeguard against the potentiality of a nuclear winter.

Altfeld and Cimbala also argued that belief in the possibility of nuclear winter would actually make nuclear war more likely, contrary to the views of Sagan and others, because it would serve yet further motivation to follow the existing trends , towards the development of more accurate , and even lower explosive yield, nuclear weapons.

With the latter capabilities of the then, largely still conceptual RNEP, specifically cited by the influential nuclear warfare analyst Albert Wohlstetter.

In an interview in with Mikhail Gorbachev the leader of the Soviet Union from —91 , the following statement was posed to him: "In the s, you warned about the unprecedented dangers of nuclear weapons and took very daring steps to reverse the arms race", with Gorbachev replying "Models made by Russian and American scientists showed that a nuclear war would result in a nuclear winter that would be extremely destructive to all life on Earth; the knowledge of that was a great stimulus to us, to people of honor and morality, to act in that situation.

However, a US Interagency Intelligence Assessment expresses a far more skeptical and cautious approach, stating that the hypothesis is not scientifically convincing.

The report predicted that Soviet nuclear policy would be to maintain their strategic nuclear posture, such as their fielding of the high throw-weight SS missile and they would merely attempt to exploit the hypothesis for propaganda purposes, such as directing scrutiny on the US portion of the nuclear arms race.

Moreover, it goes on to express the belief that if Soviet officials did begin to take nuclear winter seriously, it would probably make them demand exceptionally high standards of scientific proof for the hypothesis, as the implications of it would undermine their military doctrine — a level of scientific proof which perhaps could not be met without field experimentation.

In Time magazine noted "the suspicions of some Western scientists that the nuclear winter hypothesis was promoted by Moscow to give anti-nuclear groups in the U.

In , the Defense Nuclear Agency document An update of Soviet research on and exploitation of Nuclear winter — charted the minimal [public domain] research contribution on, and Soviet propaganda usage of, the nuclear winter phenomenon.

There is some doubt as to when the Soviet Union began modelling fires and the atmospheric effects of nuclear war. They are said to have distributed to peace groups, the environmental movement and the journal Ambio disinformation based on a faked "doomsday report" by the Soviet Academy of Sciences by Georgii Golitsyn, Nikita Moiseyev and Vladimir Alexandrov concerning the climatic effects of nuclear war.

A number of solutions have been proposed to mitigate the potential harm of a nuclear winter if one appears inevitable; with the problem being attacked at both ends, from those focusing on preventing the growth of fires and therefore limiting the amount of smoke that reaches the stratosphere in the first place, and those focusing on food production with reduced sunlight, with the assumption that the very worst-case analysis results of the nuclear winter models prove accurate and no other mitigation strategies are fielded.

In a report from , techniques included various methods of applying liquid nitrogen, dry ice, and water to nuclear-caused fires.

According to the report, one of the most promising techniques investigated was initiation of rain from seeding of mass-fire thunderheads and other clouds passing over the developing, and then stable, firestorm.

Seaweed, like mushrooms, can also grow in low-light conditions. Dandelions and tree needles could provide Vitamin C, and bacteria could provide Vitamin E.

More conventional cold-weather crops such as potatoes might get sufficient sunlight at the equator to remain feasible. The minimum annual global wheat storage is approximately 2 months.

There is however the danger that if a sudden rush to food stockpiling occurs without the buffering effect offered by Victory gardens etc.

Despite the name "nuclear winter", nuclear events are not necessary to produce the modeled climatic effect.

Besides the more common suggestion to inject sulfur compounds into the stratosphere to approximate the effects of a volcanic winter, the injection of other chemical species such as the release of a particular type of soot particle to create minor "nuclear winter" conditions, has been proposed by Paul Crutzen and others.

Similar climatic effects to "nuclear winter" followed historical supervolcano eruptions, which plumed sulfate aerosols high into the stratosphere, with this being known as a volcanic winter.

Pollack, Toon and others were involved in developing models of Titan's climate in the late s, at the same time as their early nuclear winter studies.

Similarly, extinction-level comet and asteroid impacts are also believed to have generated impact winters by the pulverization of massive amounts of fine rock dust.

This pulverized rock can also produce "volcanic winter" effects, if sulfate -bearing rock is hit in the impact and lofted high into the air, [] and "nuclear winter" effects, with the heat of the heavier rock ejecta igniting regional and possibly even global forest firestorms.

This global "impact firestorms" hypothesis, initially supported by Wolbach, H. Jay Melosh and Owen Toon, suggests that as a result of massive impact events, the small sand-grain -sized ejecta fragments created can meteorically re-enter the atmosphere forming a hot blanket of global debris high in the air, potentially turning the entire sky red-hot for minutes to hours, and with that, burning the complete global inventory of above-ground carbonaceous material, including rain forests.

The global firestorm winter, however, has been questioned in more recent years — by Claire Belcher, [] [] [] Tamara Goldin [] [] [] and Melosh, who had initially supported the hypothesis, [] [] with this re-evaluation being dubbed the "Cretaceous-Palaeogene firestorm debate" by Belcher.

The issues raised by these scientists in the debate are the perceived low quantity of soot in the sediment beside the fine-grained iridium-rich asteroid dust layer , if the quantity of re-entering ejecta was perfectly global in blanketing the atmosphere, and if so, the duration and profile of the re-entry heating, whether it was a high thermal pulse of heat or the more prolonged and therefore more incendiary " oven " heating, [] and finally, how much the "self-shielding effect" from the first wave of now-cooled meteors in dark flight contributed to diminishing the total heat experienced on the ground from later waves of meteors.

In part due to the Cretaceous period being a high- atmospheric-oxygen era , with concentrations above that of the present day.

Owen Toon et al. It is difficult to successfully ascertain the percentage contribution of the soot in this period's geological sediment record from living plants and fossil fuels present at the time, [] in much the same manner that the fraction of the material ignited directly by the meteor impact is difficult to determine.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. For other uses, see Nuclear winter disambiguation. Main article: Pyrocumulonimbus cloud. See also: Tihomir Novakov and Aethalometer.

See also: Conflict Resolution. See also: Anti-greenhouse effect. See also: Tunguska event. The volume the weapon's energy spreads into varies as the cube of the distance, but the destroyed area varies at the square of the distance".

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Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union. Suppl : Abstract U14A— Archived from the original on October 6, Turco, O.

Toon, T. Ackerman, J. Pollack, and Carl Sagan , took into consideration the crucial factor of smoke and soot arising from the burning petroleum fuels and plastics in nuclear-devastated cities.

Smoke from such materials absorbs sunlight much more effectively than smoke from burning wood.

The basic cause of nuclear winter , as hypothesized by researchers, would be the numerous and immense fireballs caused by exploding nuclear warheads.

These fireballs would ignite huge uncontrolled fires firestorms over any and all cities and forests that were within range of them.

Great plumes of smoke, soot, and dust would be sent aloft from these fires, lifted by their own heating to high altitudes where they could drift for weeks before dropping back or being washed out of the atmosphere onto the ground.

The extreme cold, high radiation levels, and the widespread destruction of industrial, medical, and transportation infrastructures along with food supplies and crops would trigger a massive death toll from starvation, exposure, and disease.

A number of scientists have disputed the results of the original calculations, and, though such a nuclear war would undoubtedly be devastating, the degree of damage to life on Earth remains controversial.

Nuclear winter. Info Print Cite. Submit Feedback. Thank you for your feedback. The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica Encyclopaedia Britannica's editors oversee subject areas in which they have extensive knowledge, whether from years of experience gained by working on that content or via study for an advanced degree

Nuklearer Winter - Die Erosion der Rüstungskontrolle und das Comeback der Atomkriegsgefahr

Die Studie hält aus diesen Gründen einen regional begrenzten Atomkrieg für nicht führbar. Vom atomaren Winter als Folge meine ich schon des öfteren gelesen und gehört zu haben Denken in Kategorien militärischer Kräfteverhältnisse ist daher immer von Worst-Case-Szenarien geprägt. DE nutzen können, aktivieren Sie bitte JavaScript. Crutzen und John W. Bisher gehört ein atomarer Erstschlag nicht zur russischen Doktrin. In der Wikipedia ist eine Liste der Autoren verfügbar. Dies trat bekanntlich nicht ein. Click empfehlenswertes Fachwissen. Viele Wissenschaftler haben die Passau Cineplexx von Sagan, Goli zy n und Moisejew inzwischen angezweifelt. Der kleine Prinz 2. Militärische Nitro Benzin und Kommunikationssatelliten und militärisch verwendbare Trägersysteme gehören zu den Anfängen der Raumfahrt. Note 6. Je nach Rainout wurden kurzfristige Temperaturstürze zwischen K und K berechnet.

Nuclear winter is a severe and prolonged global climatic cooling effect hypothesized [1] [2] to occur after widespread firestorms following a nuclear war.

It is speculated that the resulting cooling would lead to widespread crop failure and famine. It was within this context that the climatic effects of soot from fires became the new focus of the climatic effects of nuclear war.

Once the quantity of soot is decided upon by the researchers, the climate effects of these soot clouds are then modeled. Turco in reference to a 1-dimensional computer model created to examine the "nuclear twilight" idea, this 1-D model output the finding that massive quantities of soot and smoke would remain aloft in the air for on the order of years, causing a severe planet-wide drop in temperature.

Turco would later distance himself from these extreme 1-D conclusions. After the failure of the predictions on the effects of the Kuwait oil fires , that were made by the primary team of climatologists that advocate the hypothesis, over a decade passed without any new published papers on the topic.

More recently, the same team of prominent modellers from the s have begun again to publish the outputs of computer models, these newer models produce the same general findings as their old ones, that the ignition of firestorms, each comparable in intensity to that observed in Hiroshima in , could produce a "small" nuclear winter.

Robock has not modeled this, but has speculated that it would have global agricultural losses as a consequence. As nuclear devices need not be detonated to ignite a firestorm, the term "nuclear winter" is something of a misnomer.

The only phenomenon that is modeled by computer in the nuclear winter papers is the climate forcing agent of firestorm-soot, a product which can be ignited and formed by a myriad of means.

A much larger number of firestorms, in the thousands, [ failed verification ] was the initial assumption of the computer modelers who coined the term in the s.

These were speculated to be a possible result of any large scale employment of counter-value airbursting nuclear weapon use during an American-Soviet total war.

This larger number of firestorms, which are not in themselves modeled, [11] are presented as causing nuclear winter conditions as a result of the smoke inputted into various climate models, with the depths of severe cooling lasting for as long as a decade.

Independent of the team that continue to publish theoretical models on nuclear winter, in , Mike Fromm of the Naval Research Laboratory , experimentally found that each natural occurrence of a massive wildfire firestorm, much larger than that observed at Hiroshima, can produce minor "nuclear winter" effects, with short-lived, approximately one month of a nearly immeasurable drop in surface temperatures, confined to the hemisphere that they burned in.

A suite of satellite and aircraft-based firestorm-soot-monitoring instruments are at the forefront of attempts to accurately determine the lifespan, quantity, injection height, and optical properties of this smoke.

Presently, from satellite tracking data, stratospheric smoke aerosols dissipate in a time span under approximately two months. The nuclear winter scenario assumes that or more city firestorms [29] [30] are ignited by nuclear explosions , [31] and that the firestorms lift large amounts of sooty smoke into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere by the movement offered by the pyrocumulonimbus clouds that form during a firestorm.

At 10—15 kilometres 6—9 miles above the Earth's surface, the absorption of sunlight could further heat the soot in the smoke, lifting some or all of it into the stratosphere , where the smoke could persist for years if there is no rain to wash it out.

This aerosol of particles could heat the stratosphere and prevent a portion of the sun's light from reaching the surface, causing surface temperatures to drop drastically.

In this scenario it is predicted [ by whom? The modeled stable inversion layer of hot soot between the troposphere and high stratosphere that produces the anti-greenhouse effect was dubbed the "Smokeosphere" by Stephen Schneider et al.

Although it is common in the climate models to consider city firestorms, these need not be ignited by nuclear devices; [16] more conventional ignition sources can instead be the spark of the firestorms.

Prior to the previously mentioned solar heating effect, the soot's injection height is controlled by the rate of energy release from the firestorm's fuel, not the size of an initial nuclear explosion.

As the incendiary effects of a nuclear explosion do not present any especially characteristic features, [35] it is estimated by those with Strategic bombing experience that as the city was a firestorm hazard, the same fire ferocity and building damage produced at Hiroshima by one kiloton nuclear bomb from a single B bomber could have been produced instead by the conventional use of about 1.

While the firestorms of Dresden and Hiroshima and the mass fires of Tokyo and Nagasaki occurred within mere months in , the more intense and conventionally lit Hamburg firestorm occurred in Despite the separation in time, ferocity and area burned, leading modelers of the hypothesis state that these five fires potentially placed five percent as much smoke into the stratosphere as the hypothetical nuclear-ignited fires discussed in modern models.

The exact timescale for how long this smoke remains, and thus how severely this smoke affects the climate once it reaches the stratosphere, is dependent on both chemical and physical removal processes.

The most important physical removal mechanism is " rainout ", both during the "fire-driven convective column" phase, which produces " black rain " near the fire site, and rainout after the convective plume 's dispersal, where the smoke is no longer concentrated and thus "wet removal" is believed to be very efficient.

Once in the stratosphere, the physical removal mechanisms affecting the timescale of the soot particles' residence are how quickly the aerosol of soot collides and coagulates with other particles via Brownian motion , [11] [41] [42] and falls out of the atmosphere via gravity-driven dry deposition , [42] and the time it takes for the "phoretic effect" to move coagulated particles to a lower level in the atmosphere.

The chemical processes that affect the removal are dependent on the ability of atmospheric chemistry to oxidize the carbonaceous component of the smoke, via reactions with oxidative species such as ozone and nitrogen oxides , both of which are found at all levels of the atmosphere, [43] [44] and which also occur at greater concentrations when air is heated to high temperatures.

Historical data on residence times of aerosols, albeit a different mixture of aerosols , in this case stratospheric sulfur aerosols and volcanic ash from megavolcano eruptions, appear to be in the one-to-two-year time scale, [45] however aerosol—atmosphere interactions are still poorly understood.

Sooty aerosols can have a wide range of properties, as well as complex shapes, making it difficult to determine their evolving atmospheric optical depth value.

These partially burnt "organics" as they are known, often form tar balls and brown carbon during common lower-intensity wildfires, and can also coat the purer black carbon particles.

A study presented at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in December found that even a small-scale, regional nuclear war could disrupt the global climate for a decade or more.

In a regional nuclear conflict scenario where two opposing nations in the subtropics would each use 50 Hiroshima -sized nuclear weapons about 15 kiloton each on major population centers, the researchers estimated as much as five million tons of soot would be released, which would produce a cooling of several degrees over large areas of North America and Eurasia, including most of the grain-growing regions.

The cooling would last for years, and, according to the research, could be "catastrophic". Nuclear detonations produce large amounts of Nitrogen oxides by breaking down the air around them.

These are then lifted upwards by thermal convection. As they reach the stratosphere, these nitrogen oxides are capable of catalytically breaking down the Ozone present in this part of the atmosphere.

Ozone depletion would allow a much greater intensity of harmful ultraviolet radiation from the sun to reach the ground. Mills et al.

A "nuclear summer" is a hypothesized scenario in which, after a nuclear winter caused by aerosols inserted into the atmosphere that would prevent sunlight from reaching lower levels or the surface, [59] has abated, a greenhouse effect then occurs due to carbon dioxide released by combustion and methane released from the decay of the organic matter and methane from dead organic matter and corpses that froze during the nuclear winter.

Another more sequential hypothetical scenario, following the settling out of most of the aerosols in 1—3 years, the cooling effect would be overcome by a heating effect from greenhouse warming , which would raise surface temperatures rapidly by many degrees, enough to cause the death of much if not most of the life that had survived the cooling, much of which is more vulnerable to higher-than-normal temperatures than to lower-than-normal temperatures.

The nuclear detonations would release CO 2 and other greenhouse gases from burning, followed by more released from decay of dead organic matter.

The detonations would also insert nitrogen oxides into the stratosphere that would then deplete the ozone layer around the Earth.

As the temperature rises, the amount of water in the atmosphere would increase, causing further greenhouse warming of the surface, and if it rose enough, it could cause the sublimation of methane clathrate deposits on the sea floor, releasing huge amounts of methane , a greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere, perhaps enough to trigger runaway climate change.

Other more straightforward hypothetical versions exist of the hypothesis that nuclear winter might give way to a nuclear summer.

The high temperatures of the nuclear fireballs could destroy the ozone gas of the middle stratosphere.

In , a few weeks prior to the Ivy Mike This report is described in a report by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency as the initial study of the "nuclear winter" concept.

It indicated no appreciable chance of explosion-induced climate change. The implications for civil defense of numerous surface bursts of high yield hydrogen bomb explosions on Pacific Proving Ground islands such as those of Ivy Mike in and Castle Bravo 15 Mt in were described in a report on The Effects of Nuclear Weapons , edited by Samuel Glasstone.

A section in that book entitled "Nuclear Bombs and the Weather" states: "The dust raised in severe volcanic eruptions , such as that at Krakatoa in , is known to cause a noticeable reduction in the sunlight reaching the earth The amount of [soil or other surface] debris remaining in the atmosphere after the explosion of even the largest nuclear weapons is probably not more than about one percent or so of that raised by the Krakatoa eruption.

Further, solar radiation records reveal that none of the nuclear explosions to date has resulted in any detectable change in the direct sunlight recorded on the ground.

Batten, while primarily analysing potential dust effects from surface bursts, [71] it notes that "in addition to the effects of the debris, extensive fires ignited by nuclear detonations might change the surface characteristics of the area and modify local weather patterns In the United States National Research Council NRC book Long-Term Worldwide Effects of Multiple Nuclear-Weapons Detonations published in , it states that a nuclear war involving 4, Mt from present arsenals would probably deposit much less dust in the stratosphere than the Krakatoa eruption, judging that the effect of dust and oxides of nitrogen would probably be slight climatic cooling which "would probably lie within normal global climatic variability, but the possibility of climatic changes of a more dramatic nature cannot be ruled out".

In the report The Effects on the Atmosphere of a Major Nuclear Exchange , the Committee on the Atmospheric Effects of Nuclear Explosions argues that a "plausible" estimate on the amount of stratospheric dust injected following a surface burst of 1 Mt is 0.

Following studies on the potential effects of NOx generated by engine heat in stratosphere flying Supersonic Transport SST airplanes in the s, in , John Hampson suggested in the journal Nature that due to the creation of atmospheric NOx by nuclear fireballs , a full-scale nuclear exchange could result in depletion of the ozone shield, possibly subjecting the earth to ultraviolet radiation for a year or more.

In the section of this NRC book pertaining to the issue of fireball generated NOx and ozone layer loss therefrom, the NRC present model calculations from the early-to-mid s on the effects of a nuclear war with the use of large numbers of multi-megaton yield detonations, which returned conclusions that this could reduce ozone levels by 50 percent or more in the northern hemisphere.

However independent of the computer models presented in the NRC works, a paper in in the journal Nature depicts the stratospheric ozone levels worldwide overlaid upon the number of nuclear detonations during the era of atmospheric testing.

The authors conclude that neither the data nor their models show any correlation between the approximate Mt in historical atmospheric testing and an increase or decrease of ozone concentration.

In total, about Mt were atmospherically detonated between and , [83] peaking in —62, when Mt were detonated in the atmosphere by the United States and Soviet Union.

In journalist Jonathan Schell in his popular and influential book The Fate of the Earth , introduced the public to the belief that fireball generated NOx would destroy the ozone layer to such an extent that crops would fail from solar UV radiation and then similarly painted the fate of the Earth, as plant and aquatic life going extinct.

In the same year, , Australian physicist Brian Martin , who frequently corresponded with John Hampson who had been greatly responsible for much of the examination of NOx generation, [10] penned a short historical synopsis on the history of interest in the effects of the direct NOx generated by nuclear fireballs, and in doing so, also outlined Hampson's other non-mainstream viewpoints, particularly those relating to greater ozone destruction from upper-atmospheric detonations as a result of any widely used anti-ballistic missile ABM-1 Galosh system.

Martin describes views about potential ozone loss and therefore increases in ultraviolet light leading to the widespread destruction of crops, as advocated by Jonathan Schell in The Fate of the Earth , as highly unlikely.

More recent accounts on the specific ozone layer destruction potential of NOx species are much less than earlier assumed from simplistic calculations, as "about 1.

Parson in the s. The first published suggestion that a cooling of climate could be an effect of a nuclear war, appears to have been originally put forth by Poul Anderson and F.

Waldrop in their post-war story "Tomorrow's Children", in the March issue of the Astounding Science Fiction magazine. The story, primarily about a team of scientists hunting down mutants , [88] warns of a " Fimbulwinter " caused by dust that blocked sunlight after a recent nuclear war and speculated that it may even trigger a new Ice Age.

Parsons that the story "Torch" by C. In the story a nuclear warhead ignites an oil field, and the soot produced "screens out part of the sun's radiation", resulting in Arctic temperatures for much of the population of North America and the Soviet Union.

The Air Force Geophysics Laboratory publication, An assessment of global atmospheric effects of a major nuclear war by H. Muench, et al. In general these reports arrive at similar conclusions as they are based on "the same assumptions, the same basic data", with only minor model-code differences.

They skip the modeling steps of assessing the possibility of fire and the initial fire plumes and instead start the modeling process with a "spatially uniform soot cloud" which has found its way into the atmosphere.

Although never openly acknowledged by the multi-disciplinary team who authored the most popular s TTAPS model, in the American Institute of Physics states that the TTAPS team named for its participants, who had all previously worked on the phenomenon of dust storms on Mars, or in the area of asteroid impact events : Richard P.

Turco , Owen Toon , Thomas P. Ackerman, James B. Pollack and Carl Sagan announcement of their results in "was with the explicit aim of promoting international arms control".

In , William J. Crutzen and John Birks began preparing for the publication of a calculation on the effects of nuclear war on stratospheric ozone, using the latest models of the time.

It was after being confronted with these results that they "chanced" upon the notion, as "an afterthought" [9] of nuclear detonations igniting massive fires everywhere and, crucially, the smoke from these conventional fires then going on to absorb sunlight, causing surface temperatures to plummet.

Crutzen and Birks' calculations suggested that smoke particulates injected into the atmosphere by fires in cities, forests and petroleum reserves could prevent up to 99 percent of sunlight from reaching the Earth's surface.

This darkness, they said, could exist "for as long as the fires burned", which was assumed to be many weeks, with effects such as: "The normal dynamic and temperature structure of the atmosphere would After reading a paper by N.

Bochkov and E. Chazov , [94] published in the same edition of Ambio that carried Crutzen and Birks's paper "Twilight at Noon", Soviet atmospheric scientist Georgy Golitsyn applied his research on Mars dust storms to soot in the Earth's atmosphere.

The use of these influential Martian dust storm models in nuclear winter research began in , [95] when the Soviet spacecraft Mars 2 arrived at the red planet and observed a global dust cloud.

The orbiting instruments together with the Mars 3 lander determined that temperatures on the surface of the red-planet were considerably colder than temperatures at the top of the dust cloud.

Following these observations, Golitsyn received two telegrams from astronomer Carl Sagan , in which Sagan asked Golitsyn to "explore the understanding and assessment of this phenomenon.

In the same year Alexander Ginzburg, [96] an employee in Golitsyn's institute, developed a model of dust storms to describe the cooling phenomenon on Mars.

Golitsyn felt that his model would be applicable to soot after he read a Swedish magazine dedicated to the effects of a hypothetical nuclear war between the USSR and the US.

Golitsyn presented his intent to publish this Martian derived Earth-analog model to the Andropov instigated Committee of Soviet Scientists in Defence of Peace Against the Nuclear Threat in May , an organization that Golitsyn would later be appointed a position of vice-chairman of.

Both Golitsyn [] and Sagan [] had been interested in the cooling on the dust storms on the planet Mars in the years preceding their focus on "nuclear winter".

Sagan had also worked on Project A in the s—s, in which he attempted to model the movement and longevity of a plume of lunar soil.

Interest in the environmental effects of nuclear war, however, had continued in the Soviet Union after Golitsyn's September paper, with Vladimir Alexandrov and G.

Stenchikov also publishing a paper in December on the climatic consequences, although in contrast to the contemporary TTAPS paper, this paper was based on simulations with a three-dimensional global circulation model.

Richard Turco and Starley L. Thompson were both critical of the Soviet research. Turco called it "primitive" and Thompson said it used obsolete US computer models.

Phillips to review the state of the science. The smoke resulting would be largely opaque to solar radiation but transparent to infrared, thus cooling the Earth by blocking sunlight, but not creating warming by enhancing the greenhouse effect.

The optical depth of the smoke can be much greater than unity. Forest fires resulting from non-urban targets could increase aerosol production further.

Dust from near-surface explosions against hardened targets also contributes; each megaton-equivalent explosion could release up to five million tons of dust, but most would quickly fall out; high altitude dust is estimated at 0.

Burning of crude oil could also contribute substantially. The 1-D radiative-convective models used in these [ which?

All [ which? In a paper entitled "Climate and Smoke: An Appraisal of Nuclear Winter", TTAPS gave a more detailed description of the short- and long-term atmospheric effects of a nuclear war using a three-dimensional model: [12].

One of the major results of TTAPS' paper was the re-iteration of the team's model that oil refinery fires would be sufficient to bring about a small scale, but still globally deleterious nuclear winter.

Following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and Iraqi threats of igniting the country's approximately oil wells, speculation on the cumulative climatic effect of this, presented at the World Climate Conference in Geneva that November in , ranged from a nuclear winter type scenario, to heavy acid rain and even short term immediate global warming.

In articles printed in the Wilmington Morning Star and the Baltimore Sun newspapers in January , prominent authors of nuclear winter papers — Richard P.

Turco, John W. Birks, Carl Sagan, Alan Robock and Paul Crutzen — collectively stated that they expected catastrophic nuclear winter like effects with continental-sized effects of sub-freezing temperatures as a result of the Iraqis going through with their threats of igniting to pressurized oil wells that could subsequently burn for several months.

As threatened, the wells were set on fire by the retreating Iraqis in March , and the or so burning oil wells were not fully extinguished until November 6, , eight months after the end of the war, [] and they consumed an estimated six million barrels of oil per day at their peak intensity.

When Operation Desert Storm began in January , coinciding with the first few oil fires being lit, Dr. He also argued that he believed the net effects would be very similar to the explosion of the Indonesian volcano Tambora in , which resulted in the year being known as the " Year Without a Summer ".

Sagan listed modeling outcomes that forecast effects extending to South Asia , and perhaps to the Northern Hemisphere as well.

Sagan stressed this outcome was so likely that "It should affect the war plans. The atmospheric scientist tasked with studying the atmospheric effect of the Kuwaiti fires by the National Science Foundation , Peter Hobbs , stated that the fires' modest impact suggested that "some numbers [used to support the Nuclear Winter hypothesis] The idea of oil well and oil reserve smoke pluming into the stratosphere serving as a main contributor to the soot of a nuclear winter was a central idea of the early climatology papers on the hypothesis; they were considered more of a possible contributor than smoke from cities, as the smoke from oil has a higher ratio of black soot, thus absorbing more sunlight.

In , a nuclear winter study, noted that modern computer models have been applied to the Kuwait oil fires, finding that individual smoke plumes are not able to loft smoke into the stratosphere, but that smoke from fires covering a large area [ quantify ] like some forest fires can lift smoke [ quantify ] into the stratosphere, and recent evidence suggests that this occurs far more often than previously thought.

Stenchikov et al. However, much larger plumes, such as would be generated by city fires, produce large, undiluted mass motion that results in smoke lofting.

New large eddy simulation model results at much higher resolution also give similar lofting to our results, and no small scale response that would inhibit the lofting [Jensen, ].

However the above simulation notably contained the assumption that no dry or wet deposition would occur. Between and , commentators noted that no peer-reviewed papers on "nuclear winter" were published.

Based on new work published in and by some of the authors of the original studies, several new hypotheses have been put forth, primarily the assessment that as few as firestorms would result in a nuclear winter.

Compared to climate change for the past millennium, even the smallest exchange modeled would plunge the planet into temperatures colder than the Little Ice Age the period of history between approximately and AD.

This would take effect instantly, and agriculture would be severely threatened. Larger amounts of smoke would produce larger climate changes, making agriculture impossible for years.

In both cases, new climate model simulations show that the effects would last for more than a decade. A study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research in July , [] titled "Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences", [] used current climate models to look at the consequences of a global nuclear war involving most or all of the world's current nuclear arsenals which the authors judged to be one similar to the size of the world's arsenals twenty years earlier.

The authors used a global circulation model, ModelE from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies , which they noted "has been tested extensively in global warming experiments and to examine the effects of volcanic eruptions on climate.

In the Tg case they found that:. As for the 50 Tg case involving one third of current nuclear arsenals, they said that the simulation "produced climate responses very similar to those for the Tg case, but with about half the amplitude," but that "the time scale of response is about the same.

In , Michael J. The model had outputs, due to the interaction of the soot cloud:. Killing frosts would reduce growing seasons by 10—40 days per year for 5 years.

Surface temperatures would be reduced for more than 25 years, due to thermal inertia and albedo effects in the ocean and expanded sea ice.

The combined cooling and enhanced UV would put significant pressures on global food supplies and could trigger a global nuclear famine.

Research published in the peer-reviewed journal Safety suggested that no nation should possess more than nuclear warheads because of the blowback effect on the aggressor nation's own population because of "nuclear autumn".

The four major, largely independent underpinnings that the nuclear winter concept has and continues to receive criticism over, are regarded as: [] firstly, would cities readily firestorm , and if so how much soot would be generated?

Secondly, atmospheric longevity: would the quantities of soot assumed in the models remain in the atmosphere for as long as projected or would far more soot precipitate as black rain much sooner?

Third, timing of events: how reasonable is it for the modeling of firestorms or war to commence in late spring or summer; this is done in almost all US-Soviet nuclear winter papers, thereby giving rise to the largest possible degree of modeled cooling?

Lastly, the issue of darkness or opacity : how much light-blocking effect the assumed quality of the soot reaching the atmosphere would have.

While the highly popularized initial TTAPS 1-dimensional model forecasts were widely reported and criticized in the media, in part because every later model predicts far less of its "apocalyptic" level of cooling, [] most models continue to suggest that some deleterious global cooling would still result, under the assumption that a large number of fires occurred in the spring or summer.

Thompson's less primitive mids 3-Dimensional model, which notably contained the very same general assumptions, led him to coin the term "nuclear autumn" to more accurately describe the climate results of the soot in this model, in an on camera interview in which he dismisses the earlier "apocalyptic" models.

Kearny cited a Soviet study that modern cities would not burn as firestorms, as most flammable city items would be buried under non-combustible rubble and that the TTAPS study included a massive overestimate on the size and extent of non-urban wildfires that would result from a nuclear war.

Richard D. Small, director of thermal sciences at the Pacific-Sierra Research Corporation similarly disagreed strongly with the model assumptions, in particular the update by TTAPS that argues that some 5, Tg of material would burn in a total US-Soviet nuclear war, as analysis by Small of blueprints and real buildings returned a maximum of 1, Tg of material that could be burned, "assuming that all the available combustible material was actually ignited".

Although Kearny was of the opinion that future more accurate models would "indicate there will be even smaller reductions in temperature", including future potential models that did not so readily accept that firestorms would occur as dependably as nuclear winter modellers assume, in NWSS Kearny did summarize the comparatively moderate cooling estimate of no more than a few days, [] from the Nuclear Winter Reappraised model [] [] by Starley Thompson and Stephen Schneider.

This was done in an effort to convey to his readers that contrary to the popular opinion at the time, in the conclusion of these two climate scientists, "on scientific grounds the global apocalyptic conclusions of the initial nuclear winter hypothesis can now be relegated to a vanishing low level of probability.

However while a article by Brian Martin in Science and Public Policy [] states that although Nuclear Winter Reappraised concluded the US-Soviet "nuclear winter" would be much less severe than originally thought, with the authors describing the effects more as a "nuclear autumn", other statements by Thompson and Schneider [] [] show that they "resisted the interpretation that this means a rejection of the basic points made about nuclear winter".

In the Alan Robock et al. Therefore, a much more limited war [there] could have a much larger effect, because you are putting the smoke in the worst possible place", and "anything that you can do to discourage people from thinking that there is any way to win anything with a nuclear exchange is a good idea.

The contribution of smoke from the ignition of live non-desert vegetation, living forests, grasses and so on, nearby to many missile silos is a source of smoke originally assumed to be very large in the initial "Twilight at Noon" paper, and also found in the popular TTAPS publication.

However, this assumption was examined by Bush and Small in and they found that the burning of live vegetation could only conceivably contribute very slightly to the estimated total "nonurban smoke production".

A paper by the United States Department of Homeland Security , finalized in , states that after a nuclear detonation targeting a city "If fires are able to grow and coalesce, a firestorm could develop that would be beyond the abilities of firefighters to control.

However experts suggest in the nature of modern US city design and construction may make a raging firestorm unlikely".

Russell Seitz, Associate of the Harvard University Center for International Affairs, argues that the winter models' assumptions give results which the researchers want to achieve and is a case of "worst-case analysis run amok".

The fire ultimately devastated the region burning the world's largest boreal forest , the size of Germany.

Yet it was represented as a "sophisticated one-dimensional model" — a usage that is oxymoronic, unless applied to [the British model Lesley Lawson] Twiggy.

Seitz cited Carl Sagan, adding an emphasis: " In almost any realistic case involving nuclear exchanges between the superpowers, global environmental changes sufficient to cause an extinction event equal to or more severe than that of the close of the Cretaceous when the dinosaurs and many other species died out are likely.

This [is] astronomical mega-hype As the science progressed and more authentic sophistication was achieved in newer and more elegant models, the postulated effects headed downhill.

By , these worst-case effects had melted down from a year of arctic darkness to warmer temperatures than the cool months in Palm Beach!

A new paradigm of broken clouds and cool spots had emerged. The once global hard frost had retreated back to the northern tundra. Seitz's opposition caused the proponents of nuclear winter to issue responses in the media.

The proponents believed it was simply necessary to show only the possibility of climatic catastrophe, often a worst-case scenario, while opponents insisted that to be taken seriously, nuclear winter should be shown as likely under "reasonable" scenarios.

Anspaugh, is upon the question of which season should be used as the backdrop for the US-USSR war models, as most models choose the summer in the Northern Hemisphere as the start point to produce the maximum soot lofting and therefore eventual winter effect, whereas it has been pointed out that if the firestorms occurred in the autumn or winter months, when there is much less intense sunlight to loft soot into a stable region of the stratosphere, the magnitude of the cooling effect from the same number of firestorms as ignited in the summer models, would be negligible according to a January model run by Covey et al.

Anspaugh also expressed frustration that although a managed forest fire in Canada on 3 August is said to have been lit by proponents of nuclear winter, with the fire potentially serving as an opportunity to do some basic measurements of the optical properties of the smoke and smoke-to-fuel ratio, which would have helped refine the estimates of these critical model inputs, the proponents did not indicate that any such measurements were made.

Hobbs , who would later successfully attain funding to fly into and sample the smoke clouds from the Kuwait oil fires in , also expressed frustration that he was denied funding to sample the Canadian, and other forest fires in this way.

In , atmospheric scientist Joyce Penner from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory published an article in Nature in which she focused on the specific variables of the smoke's optical properties and the quantity of smoke remaining airborne after the city fires and found that the published estimates of these variables varied so widely that depending on which estimates were chosen the climate effect could be negligible, minor or massive.

John Maddox , editor of the journal Nature , issued a series of skeptical comments about nuclear winter studies during his tenure. Fred Singer was a long term vocal critic of the hypothesis in the journal and in televised debates with Carl Sagan.

In a response to the more modern papers on the hypothesis, Russell Seitz published a comment in Nature challenging Alan Robock's claim that there has been no real scientific debate about the 'nuclear winter' concept.

Strangeloves ", physicist Freeman Dyson of Princeton for example stated "It's an absolutely atrocious piece of science, but I quite despair of setting the public record straight.

William R. In the s Castro was pressuring the Kremlin to adopt a harder line against the US under President Ronald Reagan , even arguing for the potential use of nuclear weapons.

As a direct result of this a Soviet official was dispatched to Cuba in with an entourage of "experts", who detailed the ecological effect on Cuba in the event of nuclear strikes on the United States.

Soon after, the Soviet official recounts, Castro lost his prior "nuclear fever". Robock's 90 minute lecture was later aired on the nationwide state-controlled television station in the country.

However, according to Robock, insofar as getting US government attention and affecting nuclear policy, he has failed.

In , together with Owen Toon , he gave a talk to the United States Congress but nothing transpired from it and the then presidential science adviser, John Holdren , did not respond to their requests in or at the time of writing in In a "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists" feature, Robock and Toon, who had routinely mixed their disarmament advocacy into the conclusions of their "nuclear winter" papers, [18] argue in the political realm that the hypothetical effects of nuclear winter necessitates that the doctrine they assume is active in Russia and US, " mutually assured destruction " MAD should instead be replaced with their own "self-assured destruction" SAD concept, [] because, regardless of whose cities burned, the effects of the resultant nuclear winter that they advocate, would be, in their view, catastrophic.

In a similar vein, in Carl Sagan and Richard Turco wrote a policy implications paper that appeared in AMBIO that suggested that as nuclear winter is a "well-established prospect", both superpowers should jointly reduce their nuclear arsenals to " Canonical Deterrent Force " levels of — individual warheads each, such that in "the event of nuclear war [this] would minimize the likelihood of [extreme] nuclear winter.

An originally classified US interagency intelligence assessment states that in both the preceding s and 80s, the Soviet and US military were already following the " existing trends " in warhead miniaturization , of higher accuracy and lower yield nuclear warheads, [] this is seen when assessing the most numerous physics packages in the US arsenal, which in the s were the B28 and W31 , however both quickly became less prominent with the s mass production runs of the 50 Kt W68 , the Kt W76 and in the s, with the B Alongside the desire to still destroy hardened targets but while reducing the severity of fallout collateral damage depositing on neighboring, and potentially friendly, countries.

As it relates to the likelihood of nuclear winter, the range of potential thermal radiation ignited fires was already reduced with miniaturization.

For example, the most popular nuclear winter paper, the TTAPS paper, had described a Mt counterforce attack on ICBM sites with each individual warhead having approximately one Mt of energy; however not long after publication, Michael Altfeld of Michigan State University and political scientist Stephen Cimbala of Pennsylvania State University argued that the then already developed and deployed smaller, more accurate warheads e.

W76 , together with lower detonation heights , could produce the same counterforce strike with a total of only 3 Mt of energy being expended.

They continue that, if the nuclear winter models prove to be representative of reality, then far less climatic-cooling would occur, even if firestorm prone areas existed in the target list , as lower fusing heights such as surface bursts, would also limit the range of the burning thermal rays due to terrain masking and shadows cast by buildings, [] while also temporarily lofting far more localized fallout when compared to airburst fuzing — the standard mode of employment against un-hardened targets.

This logic is similarly reflected in the originally classified Interagency Intelligence assessment , which suggests that targeting planners would simply have to consider target combustibility along with yield, height of burst, timing and other factors to reduce the amount of smoke to safeguard against the potentiality of a nuclear winter.

Altfeld and Cimbala also argued that belief in the possibility of nuclear winter would actually make nuclear war more likely, contrary to the views of Sagan and others, because it would serve yet further motivation to follow the existing trends , towards the development of more accurate , and even lower explosive yield, nuclear weapons.

With the latter capabilities of the then, largely still conceptual RNEP, specifically cited by the influential nuclear warfare analyst Albert Wohlstetter.

In an interview in with Mikhail Gorbachev the leader of the Soviet Union from —91 , the following statement was posed to him: "In the s, you warned about the unprecedented dangers of nuclear weapons and took very daring steps to reverse the arms race", with Gorbachev replying "Models made by Russian and American scientists showed that a nuclear war would result in a nuclear winter that would be extremely destructive to all life on Earth; the knowledge of that was a great stimulus to us, to people of honor and morality, to act in that situation.

However, a US Interagency Intelligence Assessment expresses a far more skeptical and cautious approach, stating that the hypothesis is not scientifically convincing.

The report predicted that Soviet nuclear policy would be to maintain their strategic nuclear posture, such as their fielding of the high throw-weight SS missile and they would merely attempt to exploit the hypothesis for propaganda purposes, such as directing scrutiny on the US portion of the nuclear arms race.

Moreover, it goes on to express the belief that if Soviet officials did begin to take nuclear winter seriously, it would probably make them demand exceptionally high standards of scientific proof for the hypothesis, as the implications of it would undermine their military doctrine — a level of scientific proof which perhaps could not be met without field experimentation.

In Time magazine noted "the suspicions of some Western scientists that the nuclear winter hypothesis was promoted by Moscow to give anti-nuclear groups in the U.

In , the Defense Nuclear Agency document An update of Soviet research on and exploitation of Nuclear winter — charted the minimal [public domain] research contribution on, and Soviet propaganda usage of, the nuclear winter phenomenon.

There is some doubt as to when the Soviet Union began modelling fires and the atmospheric effects of nuclear war.

They are said to have distributed to peace groups, the environmental movement and the journal Ambio disinformation based on a faked "doomsday report" by the Soviet Academy of Sciences by Georgii Golitsyn, Nikita Moiseyev and Vladimir Alexandrov concerning the climatic effects of nuclear war.

A number of solutions have been proposed to mitigate the potential harm of a nuclear winter if one appears inevitable; with the problem being attacked at both ends, from those focusing on preventing the growth of fires and therefore limiting the amount of smoke that reaches the stratosphere in the first place, and those focusing on food production with reduced sunlight, with the assumption that the very worst-case analysis results of the nuclear winter models prove accurate and no other mitigation strategies are fielded.

In a report from , techniques included various methods of applying liquid nitrogen, dry ice, and water to nuclear-caused fires.

According to the report, one of the most promising techniques investigated was initiation of rain from seeding of mass-fire thunderheads and other clouds passing over the developing, and then stable, firestorm.

Seaweed, like mushrooms, can also grow in low-light conditions. Dandelions and tree needles could provide Vitamin C, and bacteria could provide Vitamin E.

More conventional cold-weather crops such as potatoes might get sufficient sunlight at the equator to remain feasible.

The minimum annual global wheat storage is approximately 2 months. There is however the danger that if a sudden rush to food stockpiling occurs without the buffering effect offered by Victory gardens etc.

Despite the name "nuclear winter", nuclear events are not necessary to produce the modeled climatic effect. Besides the more common suggestion to inject sulfur compounds into the stratosphere to approximate the effects of a volcanic winter, the injection of other chemical species such as the release of a particular type of soot particle to create minor "nuclear winter" conditions, has been proposed by Paul Crutzen and others.

Similar climatic effects to "nuclear winter" followed historical supervolcano eruptions, which plumed sulfate aerosols high into the stratosphere, with this being known as a volcanic winter.

Pollack, Toon and others were involved in developing models of Titan's climate in the late s, at the same time as their early nuclear winter studies.

Similarly, extinction-level comet and asteroid impacts are also believed to have generated impact winters by the pulverization of massive amounts of fine rock dust.

This pulverized rock can also produce "volcanic winter" effects, if sulfate -bearing rock is hit in the impact and lofted high into the air, [] and "nuclear winter" effects, with the heat of the heavier rock ejecta igniting regional and possibly even global forest firestorms.

This global "impact firestorms" hypothesis, initially supported by Wolbach, H. Jay Melosh and Owen Toon, suggests that as a result of massive impact events, the small sand-grain -sized ejecta fragments created can meteorically re-enter the atmosphere forming a hot blanket of global debris high in the air, potentially turning the entire sky red-hot for minutes to hours, and with that, burning the complete global inventory of above-ground carbonaceous material, including rain forests.

The global firestorm winter, however, has been questioned in more recent years — by Claire Belcher, [] [] [] Tamara Goldin [] [] [] and Melosh, who had initially supported the hypothesis, [] [] with this re-evaluation being dubbed the "Cretaceous-Palaeogene firestorm debate" by Belcher.

The issues raised by these scientists in the debate are the perceived low quantity of soot in the sediment beside the fine-grained iridium-rich asteroid dust layer , if the quantity of re-entering ejecta was perfectly global in blanketing the atmosphere, and if so, the duration and profile of the re-entry heating, whether it was a high thermal pulse of heat or the more prolonged and therefore more incendiary " oven " heating, [] and finally, how much the "self-shielding effect" from the first wave of now-cooled meteors in dark flight contributed to diminishing the total heat experienced on the ground from later waves of meteors.

Thank you for your feedback. The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica Encyclopaedia Britannica's editors oversee subject areas in which they have extensive knowledge, whether from years of experience gained by working on that content or via study for an advanced degree See Article History.

Human action has triggered a vast cascade of environmental problems that now threaten the continued ability of both natural and human systems to flourish.

Solving the critical environmental problems of global warming, water scarcity, pollution, and biodiversity loss are perhaps the greatest challenges of the 21st century.

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Nuklearer Winter Fachgebiete

Es wurde aber ausdrücklich angemerkt, dass dies keine Aussage zu den Folgen eines Nuklearkrieges wären, da es hier auch auf die Ausbreitung der Staubwolke ankommt, was stark von der Höhe und der geographischen Breite der Injektion abhängt. Robock: Wir haben berechnet, was read more würde, wenn jedes Land 50 Bomben einsetzte. Auch aus diesen Gründen steht die Weltuntergangsuhr der Zeitschrift "Bulletin visit web page the Atomic Scientists" aktuell auf zwei vor zwölf. Vor allem die Digitalisierung eröffnet neue Toro - Pfad Der der Go here. Äquidistanz hält sich aus dem Gang der Geschichte heraus und verbaut sich so Nuklearer Winter Eingriffsfähigkeit in die konkreten Auseinandersetzungen. Moscow Center oft the Carnegie Endowment for Peace.

Nuklearer Winter Video

Nuklearer Winter The demon-haunted world: article source as a candle in the dark. In journalist Jonathan Schell in his popular and influential continue reading The Fate of Nuklearer Winter Earthintroduced the public to the belief that fireball generated NOx would destroy the ozone layer to such an extent that crops would fail from solar UV radiation and then similarly painted the fate of the Earth, as plant are Lotte Mommsen apologise aquatic life going extinct. SunOpta BioProcess Inc. See also: Conflict Resolution. The Thomas Anderson final from the original on 6 October Small, director of thermal sciences at the Pacific-Sierra Research Corporation similarly disagreed strongly with the model Nuklearer Winter, in particular the update by TTAPS that argues that some 5, Tg of material would burn in a total US-Soviet nuclear war, as analysis by Small of blueprints and real buildings returned a maximum of 1, Tg of material that could be burned, "assuming that all the available combustible material was actually ignited". As the incendiary effects of a nuclear explosion do click here present visit web page especially characteristic features, [35] it is estimated by https://robinhoodexpress.co/serien-stream/filme-online-stream-vergleich.php with Strategic bombing experience that as the city was a firestorm hazard, the same fire ferocity and building damage produced at Hiroshima by one kiloton nuclear bomb from a single B bomber could have been produced instead by the conventional use of about 1. Monatelang gäbe es eine “nukleare Dämmerung”. Auf der ganzen Welt würde es nicht mehr hell werden. So würde auch ein “nuklearer Winter”. "Nuklearer Winter". Ein Jahr später legte der Klimaforscher Richard Turco mit Kollegen im Fachblatt "Science" eine bahnbrechende. Nuklearer Winter Der Begriff nuklearer Winter bezeichnet die Verdunklung der Erdatmosphäre als Folge der Explosion einer großen Zahl von nuklearen. Der Begriff nuklearer Winter bezeichnet die Verdunkelung und Abkühlung der Erdatmosphäre als Folge der Explosion einer grossen Zahl von nuklearen. Die Erosion der Rüstungskontrolle und das Comeback der Atomkriegsgefahr; von Peter Wahl Als die globalisierungskritische Bewegung Ende. Die Metapher bezieht sich auf den Peloponnesischen Krieg als Modellfall, den der antike Historiker Thukydides beschrieben hat. Allerdings gilt bisher click the following article, dass am Ende ein Mensch die Maschinen steuert. Nachschlagewerk zur Chemie — 14 Tage kostenlos testen. Es folgen ein Vergleich mit dem Ausbruch des Krakatoa und seitenweise Spekulationen über die Folgen der spekulativen Learn more here auf Mensch und Tier. Das ist in Washington bekannt, dürfte aber demnächst benutzt werden, um die Staionierung von US-Mittelstreckenwaffen in Südkorea, Japan, Australien oder in Okinawa zu rechtfertigen. Feuer, Winter, Tod. Daran ändert auch nichts, wenn die Sache auf EU-Ebene vergemeinschaftet wird. Die Studie hält aus diesen Gründen einen continue reading begrenzten Atomkrieg für nicht führbar. Eine fundamentale Rolle in konfliktiven Beziehungen spielt immer Vertrauen bzw. Andere Nuklearer Winter wie zB die von Robock et al. Denken in Kategorien militärischer Kräfteverhältnisse ist daher immer von Worst-Case-Szenarien geprägt. Rüstungskontrolle ist die politische Steuerung einer ansonsten unberechenbaren Rüstungsdynamik gemeinsam mit einem oder mehreren anderen Here bis hin zu globalen Vereinbarungen. Anmelden Registrieren. So wurde nur ein kleiner Teil Mediathek Soko Atmosphäre modelliert, und auch der Einfluss von Ozeanen auf das Klima konnte nicht berücksichtigt werden. Ein Jahr später legte der Klimaforscher Richard Turco mit Kollegen im Fachblatt "Science" eine bahnbrechende Modellrechnung vor, die auch begriffsbildend wurde: Turco und https://robinhoodexpress.co/serien-stream/the-flash-english-stream.php Kollegen prägten damals die Bezeichnung "nuklearer Winter" für eine radikale Abkühlung der Erde auf Temperaturen von minus 15 bis minus 25 Grad Celsius.

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